Monday, November 19, 2012

Serbia – Governor of National Bank denies that foreign banks are pulling out of Serbia, announces that a “Belgrade Initiative” conference will be held – including participants from Vienna Initiative “and beyond” – to deal with problem loans


In a press conference held by the National Bank of Serbia on 19 November to present quarterly inflation statistics and macroeconomic analysis, the governor of the bank, Jorgovanka Tabaković (Јоргованка Tабаковић), denied news reports that foreign (i.e., Western European) banks were pulling out of Serbia, saying that the the only Western bank that is withdrawing from Serbia is the Hypo Group, which is withdrawing from a wider part of Europe and not just from Serbia.  (See earlier article in this column, Former Yugoslavia – As part of re-privatization process, Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank publishes invitation for expressions of interest for purchase of its holdings in Southeast Europe.)  Ms. Tabaković also denied reports that bank capital in general is being withdrawn from Serbia, saying that the National Bank, which monitors capital flows, has detected no signs of such a net transfer.

Speaking on the subject of the level of problem loans in Serbia, Ms. Tabaković announced that there would be held a conference – “Belgrade Initiative” (Београдска иницијатива) – that would bring together participants from the Vienna Initiative “and beyond” so that an agreement can be reached on problem loans and provisions for them.

Related:  Video of the full press conference (58:35 in length, 470 MB) along with text of inflation-macroeconomics presentation and Excel files giving inflation statistics: Извештај о инфлацији (2012-11-19)

Background: The European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI or “Vienna Initiative”) was established in 2009 as a “framework to safeguard the financial stability of emerging Europe”, and has the support of the European Commission, the European Investment Bank, the EBRD, the IMF, and the World Bank.  The Initiative is led by the Chairman of its Steering Committee, National Bank of Poland President Marek Belka.  The first phase of the initiative, “Vienna Initiative 1.0”, had its first meeting in January 2009 and concluded its work in 2011.  The second phase, “Vienna Initiative 2.0”, which began in mid-2012, has the following mission statement:

The financial crisis has brought conflicts of interest between the banking sector’s home and host countries sharply into focus. Countries where foreign banks’ subsidiaries or branches are systemic face particular challenges in safeguarding financial stability and ensuring adequate credit supply for their economies. The countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) are important hosts to foreign banks headquartered predominantly in Western Europe. The ongoing eurozone crisis has highlighted the risk of disorderly deleveraging of western parent banks vis-à-vis their affiliates in CESEE and difficulties in cooperation between home and host country authorities.

Against this background, it is the objective of the Vienna Initiative 2 to help:

Avoid disorderly deleveraging, which could jeopardize financial stability in host countries and ultimately hurt home and host country economies alike. The objective is not to prevent deleveraging in general. Some deleveraging is beneficial, leading to more stable funding structures, reduced external debt, or stronger bank owners. It is large-scale, unanticipated rapid deleveraging that creates systemic risks and unduly curtails overall funding of CESEE banks that one needs to guard against;

Ensure that potential cross-border financial stability issues are resolved. The multi-jurisdictional setting is prone to gaps, overlaps, competing objectives and conflicts of interest among authorities, all of which demands attention. In addition banking groups would benefit from progress in this area as it would strengthen the conditions for stable and well-functioning cross-border banking;

Achieve policy actions, notably in the supervisory area, that are taken in the best joint interest of home and host countries. This requires mutual recognition of concerns by home and host countries, ensuring that host authorities have an appropriate voice, and fostering an atmosphere of trust amongst all relevant parties. The issues of bank resolution also call for the participation in discussions and potential involvement of authorities beyond supervisors and central banks, notably the fiscal authorities responsible for taxpayers´ money.

The Vienna Initiative 2 builds on the success of the Vienna Initiative 1, which was established at the height of the global financial crisis of 2008/09. It again uses a private-public sector platform, which brings together key International Financial Institutions, the European Commission and relevant EU institutions, the principal cross-border banking groups, and home and host country authorities, complementing other initiatives. Its geographical coverage extends beyond the European Union (EU) and also includes other CESEE counties with a substantial presence of western banks—instances where cross-border arrangements are naturally much less developed than inside the EU. While the Vienna Initiative 1 was focused on western banking groups maintaining exposure to their CESEE affiliates and providing capital and liquidity as needed, the Vienna Initiative 2 is, in addition to the private sector participation, mainly geared towards authorities, encouraging them to cooperate. Nonetheless the private sector has an important role to play, both in terms of helping identify concrete steps to improve coordination of authorities and in terms of working itself to avoid disorderly deleveraging.

The work within the Vienna Initiative 2 aims for practical results by monitoring of, and reporting on, the deleveraging process and by setting up temporary structures where private and public sector decision makers meet to exchange experience and discuss appropriate actions. Within such structures, peer pressure may be used to help resolve common problems. Drawing practical conclusions from the experience of the host countries and proposing action on those conclusions is also within the remit of the Vienna Initiative 2. Finally, discussions of macro-prudential issues should also be a part of the work. New regulatory development, such as the Commission resolution proposal and the banking union will be observed.


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant