Monday, December 31, 2012

Russia – Sberbank expects to register profit of € 8.7 for 2012; ATMs in Irkutsk run out of cash as New Year’s approaches; man who robbed bank in Ekaterinburg with “suicide vest” arrested by police; Expert RA issues credit ratings for two banks; Russian press spreading Daily Mail article quoting Ernst & Young as claiming global banks “have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far”


On 29 December, in a television interview with RIA’s news show “Russia 24”, Herman Gref, the CEO of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank (ОАО «Сбербанк России»), stated that the bank expects to show a profit for 2012 of 350 bln RUB (€ 8.7 bln), the largest in the history of the bank.  Mr. Gref also expressed his approval of legal changes due to enter into effect in Russia in 2013 that will require banks that offer higher interest rates on deposits to pay higher premiums into the deposit insurance fund.

Sources:


On 31 December it was reported that ATMs at banks in Irkutsk, one of the largest cities in Siberia, had run out of cash due to unexpectedly vigorous pre-New Year’s spending.  The banks began running out of cash on 27 December, leading to large crowds and long lines, and the time-consuming process of frequently replenishing ATMs with cash – carried out under police protection – could not keep up with demand.  Particularly hard hit was Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank.  It is reported that by 30 December almost all ATMs in the city had run completely out of cash.

Source:


In earlier news, on 29 December a man robbed a bank in Ekaterinburg.  On Saturday morning a man entered the Shchorsa Street branch of Sberbank carrying a box in his hands and claiming to be a terrorist, and threatened to blow up the bank if he were not given money.  According to the press spokesman of the Interior Ministry for Sverdlovsk Oblast, bank employees were able to press a silent alarm, which police received at 10:10 A.M., but when the suspect saw police vehicles arriving he fled the bank, and was seen to be wearing what seemed like an explosive suicide vest.

The suspect was eventually hunted down and cornered by police, and a bomb squad was called in to defuse the device that was strapped to the suspect while three neighboring houses were evacuated.  In the end the device was found to consist of red and black wires, a cell phone, some large batteries, and 18 bars of soap.  The suspect, born in 1994 and a sophomore at the faculty of electrical engineering at Ural Federal University, claimed that the previous night – Friday – he had gotten drunk on whiskey with some friends, who had dressed him up with the makeshift “suicide vest” and sent him off to “storm” the bank, and these claims were later corroborated.

The suspect, who made off with at least 45,000 RUB (€ 1,100) in cash, will be charged under Art. 207 (knowingly providing false information about a terrorist act) and Art. 162 (robbery) of the criminal code.

Sources:


Also on 29 December, the private rating agency Expert RA (Рейтинговое агентство «Эксперт РА») confirmed its rating of “A” for the commercial bank “Radiotechbank” (ОАО НКБ «Радиотехбанк»; headquartered in Nizhny Novgorod, east of Moscow; total assets as of 1 December: 1.956 bln RUB).  The decision to confirm the rating, with an outlook of “stable”, was influenced positively by the bank’s high capital adequacy ratio (ratio of own funds – “N1” – of 18.9% as of 1 December) and its high liquidity (instant liquidity ratio – “N2” – of 57.9% as of 1 December), but was negatively influenced by the bank’s low ROE (5.0% in 3Q 2012) as well as low interest income and commission income.

On the same day, Expert RA also assigned a rating of “B++” to the commercial bank “Necklace Bank” (ООО КБ «Нэклис-Банк»; headquartered in Moscow; total assets at 1 December: 4.698 bln RUB).  Positive factors were a low default rate on loans and a high instant liquidity ratio (N2 = 79.19% on 1 Dec.), while negative factors were a high concentration of loans with high-risk borrowers and a low level of security to the loan portfolio.

Sources:


In earlier news, on 28 December the bank-news site Banki.ru published a Russian translation of an article that had appeared on 27 December on the website of the Daily Mail in the UK.  The Daily Mail article read as follows:

Webpage title: Ernst & Young: Banks 'have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far'  Mail Online


Global banks 'have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far' warns accountancy giant
By James Salmon

Banks in the Western world are on the hook for even bigger losses on toxic loans than they have admitted so far.

This is according to a bleak report from accountants Ernst & Young.

It said lenders across many developed markets are ‘unwilling,  or unable’ to write down asset values to more realistic levels and accept credit losses.

This raises the grim prospect of banks taking more huge hits in the new year as they cope with the fallout from reckless behaviour before the credit crunch.

It comes after the Bank of England last month warned that banks may require up to £15billion of extra provisions to cover bad loans.

Lenders have billions of pounds tied up in troubled economies across the eurozone, including Spain and Italy. And state-backed RBS has £19billion in Irish residential mortgages – 60 per cent  of which are in negative equity.

Banks in Western economies are also poorly capitalised, in stark contrast  to their counterparts in developing markets, the report said.

It also raised fears that the benefits of a European banking union could  be eroded by disagreements about how it should be implemented.

This includes whether funds should be released to bail out troubled lenders in Ireland and Spain.


The story, with its alarming headline, was picked up by hundreds of news aggregator websites in English, and the Banki translation has found its way onto more than 30 Russian websites.  Unfortunately the quotation given in the headline itself does not come from the Ernst & Young report referred to, and the report itself is much more bland than implied, being anything but “bleak”.

The report, published on 18 December by Ernst & Young, is entitled Time for bold action: Global banking outlook 2013–14.  Not only is the phrase “have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far” nowhere to be found in the report – a Google search of the Internet finds this phrase appearing only in the Daily Mail article by James Salmon and its repostings elsewhere – but in fact the text of the report does not use either the word “billions” or “toxic”.  Leaving aside the frightening commentary added by Mr. Salmon, it is true that the report does contain the following passage:

Banks across many developed markets remain undercapitalized and are unwilling, or unable, to write down asset values to more realistic levels and accept credit losses. Many of those same banks will also face the challenge of weaning themselves off central bank liquidity support before the repayment deadlines. The economic recovery will alleviate some of these problems, but further bank restructuring is likely in the short to medium term.

as well as the following:

Unfortunately, the benefits from these positive steps could be eroded, with disagreements over the construct of the banking union and whether the ESM can be used for legacy issues at banks in Ireland and Spain. Until these remaining uncertainties are addressed, and prospects improve in the peripheral economies, we’re likely to see continued challenges for banks and borrowers as GDP growth in Europe remains muted.

Nevertheless the report – like its immediate predecessor, Making the right moves: Global banking outlook 2012-13 – is far from taking any strong positions or even being particularly informative, but is written at the level of pabulum.  The content is extremely generic, an alternation of sweeping statements that appear to say something bold followed by qualifying phrases that subtract a large amount of the force from what preceded.  It reads almost like a horoscope, and could perhaps be rewritten as a horoscope without losing anything of value: “Sagittarius: Decisive, pro-active planning for regulatory changes in 2013 can place your bank in a position of strength, but exposure to problem loans risks making the year difficult for you.  You may need to make major decisions during the year, particularly regarding entry into new markets and your pricing model for retail customers, but be ready for surprises.  A bank close to you will go through resolution this year.”

Sources:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Transnistria – Central bank publishes New Year’s greeting to all Transnistrians


On 29 December the central bank of Transnistria – the Trans-Dniester Republican Bank (Приднестровский Республиканский Банк - ПРБ) – issued the following New Year’s greeting:


ПОЗДРАВЛЕНИЕ С НАСТУПАЮЩИМ НОВЫМ 2013 ГОДОМ!



Not to be outdone by the Trans-Dniester Republican Bank in Tiraspol, this column too wishes a very happy New Year to all its readers.

Source:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Friday, December 28, 2012

Bosnia – Banking agency for Republika Srpska publishes full report on banking system for 9M 2012; IMF publishes country report for Bosnia


On 27 December the Banking Agency of Republika Srpska (Агенција за банкарство Републике Српске) published on its website a full report (69 pp.) on the banking system in Republika Srpska for 9M 2012.  The report is dated November 2012, and a few consolidated statistics were made public on 19 December, but only on 27 December was the full report made available to the public.

Unlike the report for 9M 2012 released on 11 December by the banking agency for the other main entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) – the report for Republika Srpska (RS) provides only limited data on individual banks.  Below is what can be extracted from the report concerning individual banks:


Bank
Total Assets
(000 BAM)
Capital
(000 BAM)
Branches
Other
Org. Units
POS
Devices
ATMs
Employees








Operations in RS by banks headquartered in RS:







Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank a.d. Banja Luka
1,428,705
252,122

44
455
48
573
Nova banka a.d. Banja Luka Бања
1,173,125
103,631
10
37
768
59
549
NLB Razvojna banka a.d. Banja Luka
1,138,506
104,276
12
57
1,595
63
499
UniCredit bank a.d. Banja Luka
830,498
109,867
37
6
44
52
438
Volksbank a.d. Banja Luka
468,836
67,535
9
11
362
21
245
Balkan Investment Bank a.d. Banja Luka
279,218
44,057
12
25
19
14
221
Bobar banka a.d. Bijeljina
260,995
34,478
6
43
67
5
186
Komercijalna banka a.d. Banja Luka
242,496
64,334
10
7
16
26
141
Pavlović International Bank a.d. Slobomir
200,496
30,030
5
26
30
3
229
MF banka a.d. Banja Luka
95,835
20,104

15

6
109








Operations in RS by banks headquartered in FBiH:







ProCredit Bank d.d. Sarajevo


2
2
1
4

Raiffeisen Bank d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina


9
18
1,025
41

Volksbank BH d.d.


1
2
29
3

Intesa Sanpaolo banka d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina


1
5
5
8

UniCredit Bank d.d.


6

384
15

Moja banka d.d. Sarajevo


1

2
1

Sparkasse Bank d.d. Sarajevo


2
3
4
5

TOTAL
6,118,710
830,434
123
301
4,806
297
3,190

On the basis of the above data some basic benchmarks of market concentration can be calculated.  One major index of market concentration, used primarily by anti-monopoly regulators, is the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, or “HHI”.  It is calculated simply by squaring the market share for each firm (or for at least the 50 largest firms), and summing the total of the squares.  In its report the banking agency for RS itself provides HHI figures for assets, for deposits, and for loans, but because the report only contains raw data for assets, it is not possible to independently verify the HHIs for deposits or loans.  Nevertheless the HHI for total assets in the banking sector in RS as of 30 September 2012 can be verified, and is calculated as follows:

Bank
Total Assets (000 BAM)
Market share by assets
Market share squared
Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank a.d. Banja Luka
1,428,705
23.35%
545.21
Nova banka a.d. Banja Luka Бања
1,173,125
19.17%
367.59
NLB Razvojna banka a.d. Banja Luka
1,138,506
18.61%
346.22
UniCredit bank a.d. Banja Luka
830,498
13.57%
184.23
Volksbank a.d. Banja Luka
468,836
7.66%
58.71
Balkan Investment Bank a.d. Banja Luka
279,218
4.56%
20.82
Bobar banka a.d. Bijeljina
260,995
4.27%
18.19
Komercijalna banka a.d. Banja Luka
242,496
3.96%
15.71
Pavlović International Bank a.d. Slobomir
200,496
3.28%
10.74
MF banka a.d. Banja Luka
95,835
1.57%
2.45
TOTAL
6,118,710
100.00%
1569.88

The HHI for assets in the banking sector calculates out as 1569.88, which corresponds well to the figure of “1570” provided in the report.  The report also provides HHIs of “1578” for deposits and “1566” for loans, but without supporting data.  In short, all three figures fall in a narrow range between 1566 and 1578.  As for the significance of HHI figures, the U.S. Department of Justice writes as follows: “The agencies generally consider markets in which the HHI is between 1,500 and 2,500 points to be moderately concentrated, and consider markets in which the HHI is in excess of 2,500 points to be highly concentrated.”

A second, somewhat simpler measure of market concentration that is commonly used is “CR10”, the combined market shares of the top ten entities in the market.  Because Republika Srpska has only ten banks based within its borders, the value of CR10 for assets is precisely 100%.  Other common measures of market concentration used are “CR5” and “CR3”, the combined market shares of the top five and top three entities on the market.  From the above data we can calculate that – for assets – the value for CR5 is 23.35% + 19.17% + 18.61% + 13.57% + 7.66% = 82.36%, while the value for CR3 is 61.13%.

Similar calculations can also be performed for the banking sector in the other entity in Bosnia, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), using the data published by the Banking Agency for FBiH on 11 December.  Because the Banking Agency for FBiH published raw data not only for total assets but also for total deposits and total loans, HHIs can be calculated for each of these, and values for CR10, CR5, and CR3 as well.  Below are data from the FBiH report, with HHI calculations for each of the three categories:

Bank
Total Assets
(000 BAM)
Market share by assets
Market share squared
Total Deposits
(000 BAM)
Market share by deposits
Market share squared
Total Loans
(000 BAM)
Market share by loans
Market share squared
Profit for 9M 2012
(000 BAM)
Raiffeisen Bank d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina
3,713,483
24.89%
619.75
2,725,472
25.24%
636.99
2,471,605
23.23%
539.47
38,175
UniCredit Bank d.d.
3,566,586
23.91%
571.68
2,586,604
23.95%
573.73
2,494,550
23.44%
549.53
44,132
Hypo Alpe-Adria-Bank d.d. Mostar
1,479,232
9.92%
98.34
1,016,680
9.41%
88.64
1,017,065
9.56%
91.35
-6,031
Intesa Sanpaolo banka d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina
1,375,736
9.22%
85.06
912,334
8.45%
71.38
1,158,312
10.88%
118.48
11,243
Sparkasse Bank d.d. Sarajevo
935,345
6.27%
39.32
813,540
7.53%
56.76
760,531
7.15%
51.08
6,821
NLB Tuzlanska banka d.d. Tuzla
828,872
5.56%
30.88
630,686
5.84%
34.11
638,812
6.00%
36.04
4,211
Volksbank BH d.d.
683,666
4.58%
21.01
516,064
4.78%
22.84
562,425
5.29%
27.93
4,691
BBI banka d.d. Sarajevo
350,586
2.35%
5.52
236,302
2.19%
4.79
240,020
2.26%
5.09
585
Bor banka d.d. Sarajevo
330,614
2.22%
4.91
206,673
1.91%
3.66
202,631
1.90%
3.63
2,161
ProCredit Bank d.d. Sarajevo
314,517
2.11%
4.45
229,784
2.13%
4.53
274,688
2.58%
6.66
309
Vakufska banka d.d. Sarajevo
246,935
1.66%
2.74
185,284
1.72%
2.94
179,866
1.69%
2.86
437
Privredna banka d.d. Sarajevo
220,709
1.48%
2.19
159,116
1.47%
2.17
151,136
1.42%
2.02
112
Turkish Ziraat Bank Bosnia d.d. Sarajevo
218,003
1.46%
2.14
102,713
0.95%
0.90
120,360
1.13%
1.28
1,114
Union banka d.d. Sarajevo
204,058
1.37%
1.87
145,764
1.35%
1.82
95,341
0.90%
0.80
728
Investiciono-komercijalna banka d.d. Zenica
177,107
1.19%
1.41
124,483
1.15%
1.33
94,351
0.89%
0.79
1,769
Moja banka d.d. Sarajevo
158,128
1.06%
1.12
130,851
1.21%
1.47
116,645
1.10%
1.20
-76
Komercijalno-investiciona banka d.d. Velika Kladuša
62,277
0.42%
0.17
38,286
0.35%
0.13
35,586
0.33%
0.11
566
Poštanska banka BiH d.d. Sarajevo
50,913
0.34%
0.12
38,184
0.35%
0.13
27,441
0.26%
0.07
-191
TOTAL
14,916,767
100.00%
1492.67
10,798,820
100.00%
1508.30
10,641,365
100.00%
1438.37
110,756

The resulting HHIs for FBiH are 1492.67 for assets, 1508.30 for deposits, and 1438.37 for loans.  These values correspond well to the values provided by the agency itself in the report, of “1493”, “1508”, and “1438”.

Because the Federation has more than 10 banks based within its borders, the CR10 figures will not be 100% as they were in the case of Republika Srpska.  In fact for the Federation the CR10 calculates out as 91.03% for assets, 91.44% for deposits, and 92.29% for loans.  Likewise CR5 values are 74.21%, 74.59%, and 74.26%, respectively, while figures for CR3 are 58.72%, 58.61%, and 56.23%, respectively.

Sources:
U.S. Dept. of Justice: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index


In other news, on 27 December the International Monetary Fund published an updated report on its relationship with Bosnia and Herzegovina, entitled “First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion.”  Completed on 7 December, the report contains the following regarding the banking sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (emphasis as per original; “BiH” = Bosnia and Herzegovina):

C. Mitigating Financial Sector Risks
15. BiH’s banking system has remained relatively stable. Banks have a large deposit base, and the sector as a whole is profitable and has improved its capital adequacy through capital injections and profit retention. Stress tests using end-June 2012 data did not reveal major weaknesses. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) have remained at around 12½ percent, but provisioning stands at 67 percent of non-performing assets, broadly in line with the regional average. BiH banks’ parents are committed to maintain their exposure to BiH, and the data for the first two quarters of 2012 show that parent banks’ exposure to BiH banks has remained broadly stable.
16. The authorities are taking measures to strengthen bank supervision, and will seek further technical assistance from the Fund on practical steps and procedures in the event of banking sector difficulties. Specifically:
–    Given the dominance of foreign ownership in the BiH’s banking system, cooperation with home supervisors is essential. In this context, the Federation authorities have amended the legal framework related to the treatment of confidential information to align it with EU requirements and the RS authorities plan to do this soon (an existing structural benchmark for end-December 2012). This would help to pave the way for the signing of Memoranda of Understanding with the Austrian and Italian banking supervision authorities.
–    In addition, to further strengthen the bank resolution frameworks, the authorities plan to shorten the provisional administration period and to redraft the law governing the Deposit Insurance Agency in line with Fund staff recommendations (existing structural benchmarks for end-December 2012 and end-March 2013, respectively).
–    The authorities are also working to improve their coordination in conducting topdown stress tests and will agree upon a joint Memorandum of Understanding on the stress-testing procedures by end-March 2013.
–   The authorities are in the process of identifying financial institutions that are considered systemically important, and will increase their focus on these institutions, including by conducting bottom-up stress tests.
17. Improving the NPL resolution framework would further enhance BiH’s capacity in crisis resolution. NPL resolution is currently hindered by legal, tax, and institutional shortcomings. The authorities will conduct a comprehensive review of the legal and institutional frameworks, with the assistance from the Fund, in order to create a system that encourages NPL resolution. As part of these efforts, the authorities plan to adopt legislation on factoring — allowing banks to sell loans — and review personal bankruptcy legislation in light of the high level of indebtedness of individuals.

Source:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant