Thursday, November 29, 2012

Cyprus – Bank of Cyprus releases financial results for first nine months of 2012; IMF expects to receive data on recapitalization needs of Cyprus banking system during first week of December – AMENDED


As per its earlier announcement of 16 November, on 28 November the largest commercial bank in Cyprus, Bank of Cyprus Public Co. Ltd. (Τράπεζα Κύπρου Δημόσια Εταιρία Λτδ), published its financial results for the first nine months of 2012.  The following is an excerpt from the English version of the management’s 11-page announcement summarizing the results (emphasis as per original):

Further deterioration in loan portfolio quality led to a significant increase in provisions for impairment of loans (€822 mn in the nine months of 2012, compared with €295 million for the nine months of 2011), resulting to losses after tax, excluding the impairment of Greek Government Bonds (GGBs) and the change in fair value of related hedging derivatives as well as the related deferred tax, of €291 mn compared to a profit of €254 mn for the nine months of 2011. Losses after tax and including the impairment of GGBs for the nine months of 2012 reached €211 mn compared to €793 mn in the nine months of 2011, which included significant losses from the GGBs impairment of about €1.046 mn.

As with the anticipatory “profit warning” announcement that the bank issued on 9 November, in the present document there is a fair amount of craftiness in the wording regarding the impact of Greek Government bonds (GGBs – Ομολόγων Ελληνικού Δημοσίου (ΟΕΔ)) on the results for the period.  The document insists on frequently lumping together impairment losses on GGBs and general provisions for impaired loans, at times giving the impression that a significant share of the huge leap in provisions for impaired loans/assets that took place in 9M2012 compared to 9M2011 (€295 mln → € 822 mln, an increase of € 527 mln or about 2% of the GDP of Cyprus) arose from continuing provisions for GGBs.  But an examination of the details shows that in 9M2012 bad GGBs did not increase the bank’s overall provisions but instead reduced them slightly, by € 80 mln:

Provisions for impairment of loans and advances (Προβλέψεις για απομείωση δανείων και απαιτήσεων):
Cyprus: (€ 315,432,000)
Greece: (€ 435,517,000)
Russia: (€ 44,944,000)
Other countries: (€ 25,771,000)
Total: (€ 821,664,000)

Impairment of GGBs and change in fair value of related hedging instruments after tax (Απομείωση ΟΕΔ και μεταβολή στην εύλογη αξία σχετικών παραγώγων αντιστάθμισης μετά τη φορολογία):
€ 80,134,000

Without the contribution of GGBs, the bank’s provisions for other impaired loans/assets would not be € 822 mln but € 902 mln.  And not all of the bank’s impaired-asset problems are due to Greece, since the provision for impaired loans in Cyprus surged from € 104 mln to € 315 mln between Sept. 2011 and Sept. 2012.  In fact during the first nine months of 2012 the bank lost money in all four of its operating segments:

Loss before tax (Ζημιές πριν τη φορολογία):
Cyprus: (€ 8,119,000)
Greece: (€ 284,782,000)
Russia: (€ 10,318,000)
Other countries: (€ 1,830,000)
Total: (€ 305,049,000)

Clearly the bank’s problems are much broader than just Greece or Cyprus.  The bank’s website informs us that the Bank of Cyprus Group – of which Bank of Cyprus Public Co Ltd is the head company – “currently operates through a total of 556 branches, of which 190 operate in Russia, 181 in Greece, 126 in Cyprus, 44 in Ukraine, 10 in Romania, 4 in the United Kingdom and 1 in the Channel Islands.”  The financial statements for 9M2012 reveal that besides after-tax losses in Cyprus, Greece, and Russia, the bank had an after-tax loss of € 7 mln in Romania, and only obtained after-tax profits in the UK (€ 3 mln), Australia (€ 3 mln, but the Australian operations have since been sold), and Ukraine (€ 1 mln).

Sources:
Bank of Cyprus website: Οικονομικά στοιχεία


In other news, on 29 November a press briefing was held in Washington, D.C., by Gerry Rice, Director of the IMF’s External Relations Department.  Below is an excerpt of the questions and answers concerning the situation in Cyprus:


QUESTION: The second question was about Cyprus. The government said that they are close to reaching a deal in December with European lenders and the IMF and even talk about an interest rate. I was wondering if you could comment on progress and what concerns you see. Thank you.

MR. RICE: You may have seen the joint statement from the E.U., the ECB, and the IMF that we issued last Friday, about productive discussions with the authorities on policy building blocks of the macroeconomic adjustment program. These include policies to strengthen public finances, restore the health of the financial system, and strengthen competitiveness so as to pave the way for the economy to return to sustained growth and financial stability. What I can tell you further is that these discussions are continuing with the authorities and our European partners on financing solutions consistent with debt sustainability. I do not have detail for you on further timing at this stage.

QUESTION: I have a follow-up on Cyprus. When will we see the results of the review of the banking sector? Do you have any idea?

MR. RICE: The preliminary estimate of banking capital needs is expected from PIMCO during the first week of December and these results will be instrumental in determining the financing envelope that would underpin a potential program with Cyprus. The results of the bottom up due diligence exercise are expected to be made public early in 2013.

QUESTION: So we have to wait to next year for the program on Cyprus?

MR. RICE: I do not have a date for you. As I say, we are in discussions. We have had the mission. We are in discussions. There is now this banking due diligence exercise and so we will be taking all that under consideration.

QUESTION: And the last question on Cyprus. Did Cyprus send final proposals? Do you have an idea or can you ask and tell us later?

MR. RICE: I will get back to you on that if we can.



Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant