Saturday, March 30, 2013

Belarus – BPS Sberbank to issue dividend of 2.74%; IMF mission completes visit to Belarus and issues concluding statement


On 29 March a general meeting of shareholders of the commercial bank BPS-Sberbank (ОАО «БПС-Сбербанк») decided that the bank would distribute to shareholders a total of BYR 19.87 bln in dividends, or 2.74% of the BYR 724.3 bln in profit that the bank earned in 2012.  BPS-Sberbank is owned 97.91% by Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank (ОАО «Сбербанк России»).

The bank’s 2012 net profit of BYR 724.3 bln (€ 63.87 mln) represented a 268% increase over the net profit of BYR 270.2 bln earned in 2011. (As of 31 Dec. 2012 one euro equaled 11,340 Belarusian rubles (BYR).)

As of 30 September 2012 the bank was ranked third among Belarus’s 32 commercial banks by assets, with total assets of 29,770 bln BYR (€ 2.71 bln), giving it a market share of 9.82% in assets.

Sources:
Ratings of banks in Belarus by assets and capital as of 2012-10-01: Рейтинг белорусских банков



In other news, on 27 March a mission from the International Monetary Fund concluded a visit to Belarus and issued a concluding statement in Minsk.  Because the statement is brief, it is reproduced verbatim in its entirety below.

 “Following a successful stabilization of the Belarus economy in early 2012, achieved by an impressive concerted tightening following the 2011 crisis, a subsequent rapid loosening of policies led to renewed volatility in the second half of the year, necessitating another policy reversal in the fall.

“The authorities should avoid a repeat of the stop-go policy pattern of 2012 and pursue predictable and consistent macroeconomic policies that promote stability. The policies of the government and the central bank should be closely coordinated and squarely focused on further reducing inflation and containing external imbalances. This is even more important as a deteriorating balance of payments and high external debt service pose challenges.

“Against this backdrop, the mission commends the government’s balanced budget target for 2013, but more is needed to ensure an appropriate stance of fiscal policies. In particular, the government should build on the reduction of directed and subsidized lending achieved in 2012, and aim for a sharp further reduction of such lending in 2013. It is also key to limit wage growth to help contain demand and restore competitiveness after last year’s high wage increases reversed much of the competitiveness gains from the 2011 devaluation. The mission advises that 2013 wage growth is kept at 12 percent, in line with the inflation target.

“On monetary policy, we recommend that the central bank stand ready to raise policy rates if the welcome reduction in inflation in February is not sustained over the next few months. Increases will also be needed if directed lending or wage policies adjust insufficiently or if exchange rate pressures reemerge. The flexible exchange rate policy should be continued. A close eye should be kept on rapid foreign currency lending growth, which poses increasing prudential risks. The central bank should consider further measures to curb this growth and the appropriate prohibition of foreign currency lending to households should be maintained.

“Deep structural reform remains critical to achieving higher sustainable growth. The government has made progress in some areas, including tax reform and the new bankruptcy law, but this has been offset by backward steps in other areas such as price liberalization and privatization. Therefore, a comprehensive, consistent and ambitious reform agenda is needed.

“Price liberalization, strengthening of property rights, privatization, state-owned enterprise restructuring, and establishment of targeted social benefits to protect the most vulnerable, remain key reform priorities. In this context, provisions in the draft new privatization law that aim to continue state interference in privatized companies risk undermining the benefits of privatization and should be reconsidered. Financial sector reform is also essential and a concentration of directed lending in the Development Bank would allow other banks to operate on market terms, ensuring that credit goes to the most viable enterprises and sectors.

“The IMF will maintain close cooperation with Belarus, including through intensive policy consultation and technical assistance. Negotiations on a new program continue to require a credible commitment at the highest level to a comprehensive policy package that could garner sufficient support among the IMF membership. Such a package would need to include consistent macroeconomic policies that safeguard stability, and concrete steps toward deep structural reform.”


Source:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Slovenia – Central bank issues press release stating that Slovenia’s situation is in no way comparable to that of Cyprus; IMF mission completes visit and issues concluding statement, judging that recapitalization of banks is necessary because of rising ratio of NPLs; Government buys out major shareholders of troubled bank NLB



On 18 March the nation’s central bank, the Bank of Slovenia (Banka Slovenije), issued a press release stating that the situation of Slovenia is not comparable to that of Cyprus.

In the press release – issued only in Slovenian and not in English – the Bank of Slovenia points out that in Cyprus the ratio of total banking system assets to GDP is 800%, but was just 135% in Slovenia at the end of 2012.

The Bank goes on to state that while the problems of the Cypriot banking system arose due to low tax rates for foreign investors, which attracted many deposits from abroad, deposits by foreign non-financial corporations in Slovenian banks account for just 1% of the liabilities of Slovenian banks, and, unlike the situation in Cyprus, non-residents comprise just a token share of depositors in Slovenian banks.

Analysis

The press release helpfully provides hypertext links to the very tables and data series that demonstrate the points given in the last paragraph above.  But if one follows the links and examines the latest statistics carefully (Jan. 2013) one notes that while it is true that “deposits of foreign non-financial corporations” in Slovenian monetary financial institutions (excluding the central bank itself) come to just 129 mln EUR and that “total liabilities” (deposits + debt securities) of all MFIs (excluding the central bank) come to 41,222 mln EUR, if one widens the numerator to include all deposits by foreign parties and narrows the denominator to include only deposits (and not debt securities, i.e., bonds), then one sees that no less than 22.3% of the 38.8 bln EUR of deposits in the Slovenian commercial bank system are owed to foreign parties, meaning that Slovenia is indeed vulnerable to a bank run by foreign depositors.

The following data are drawn from the Bank’s monthly statistical bulletin for February, specifically from Table 1.6, which covers “Selected Liabilities of Other Monetary Financial Institutions by Sector” (Izbrane obveznosti drugih monetarnih finančnih institucij - sektorska členitev).  (NB: “Monetary Financial Institutions” (MFIs) is an EU statistical category that includes each country’s central bank, while “Other Monetary Financial Institutions” refers to all MFIs except for the central bank.)

Total liabilities of Other MFIs to foreign non-financial corporations: Deposits: 129 mln EUR
Total liabilities of Other MFIs: 41,222 mln EUR

Total liabilities of Other MFIs to foreign sectors: Deposits: 8,658 mln EUR
Total liabilities of Other MFIs to domestic sectors:  Deposits: 30,113 mln EUR

The statistics indicate that of the 8,658 mln EUR in deposits by foreign parties, a total of 5,486 mln EUR are deposits by foreign MFIs in “domestic currency” (i.e., EUR) with an agreed maturity that counts as “long-term”.


The press release concludes with a detailed explanation of how Slovenia’s deposit insurance system guarantees all deposits by individuals up to € 100,000.

Sources:
Statistical bulletin for February 2013 (Slovenian): Bilten, februar 2013 (see Table 1.6)
Statistical bulletin for February 2013 (English): Monthly bulletin February 2013 (see Table 1.6)



Also on 18 March, a staff mission of the International Monetary Fund completed a visit to Slovenia and issued a concluding statement in Ljubljana.  Because a considerable portion of the statement deals with Slovenia’s banking sector, the entire statement is reproduced below verbatim.  (Emphasis as per original).

A negative loop between financial distress, fiscal consolidation, and weak corporate balance sheets is prolonging the recession. Prompt policy actions are necessary to break this loop and restart the economy. Repairing the financial sector and improving corporate balance sheets is of the essence. The Bank Asset Management Company is an effective way to clean bank balance sheets. Banks should be quickly recapitalized. A clear and coherent plan is key to access international capital markets quickly. Fiscal consolidation should continue to reduce the structural deficit, while letting the automatic stabilizers work. Recent labor market and pension reforms are steps in the right direction.

1. A negative loop between financial distress, fiscal consolidation, and weak corporate balance sheets is prolonging the recession. Real GDP declined by 2.3 percent in 2012 as domestic demand shrank severely. The mission expects the economy to contract further by about 2 percent in 2013 and projects growth to turn positive in 2014, but this is predicated upon implementation of reforms and continued market access as well as a recovery in the euro area. Against this background, the risks are mainly on the downside.

2. Prompt policy actions are necessary to break the negative loop, to restore confidence, and to address structural weaknesses. In recent months, Slovenia has already implemented important labor market and pension system reforms. The Bank Asset Management Company (BAMC) and the sovereign state holding company have been created. Building on this framework, the new government should promptly address bank restructuring, corporate sector debt overhang and governance, and involvement of the state in the economy. A coherent and credible plan to address these issues is essential to restore confidence and access markets.

Financial and Corporate Sector: Breaking the negative loops

3. Banks are under severe distress. The share of nonperforming claims in total classified claims increased from 11.2 percent at the end of 2011 to 14.4 percent in 2012. The three largest banks saw their ratio increase from 15.6 percent to 20.5 percent in the same period with about of their corporate loans non-performing. Meanwhile these banks have repaid the bulk of their debt with foreign private creditors, while increasing reliance on the ECB.

4. Slovenia has made progress in setting up the BAMC, which is an effective way to clean up the balance sheet of troubled banks, while at the same time helping restructure the highly indebted corporate sector. This process should be carried out with the utmost transparency, avoiding any moral hazard arising from the close relationship between banks, corporates, and the public sector. For this reason, the mission sees favorably the appointment of international technical experts as non-executive members of the board of the BAMC.

5. Banks need to be substantially recapitalized. Despite some past recapitalization, the deteriorating loan portfolio continues to erode bank capital. The transfer of assets to the BAMC is not a substitute for the need to increase capital (in cash) and actually could trigger upfront recapitalization. The recapitalization needs for the three largest banks is estimated at around €1 billion in 2013, also identified by the supervisor. Deteriorating economic conditions could increase the need for capital in outer years.

6. Corporate sector balance sheets are under significant stress. The debt to equity ratio is among the highest in Europe. Cross ownership between large industrial groups, financial holding companies and banks, and lengthy bankruptcy procedures exacerbate the underlying problem of debt overhang.

7. Addressing corporate debt overhang is key to alleviate the financial sector distress, and ultimately spur growth. The restructuring process will benefit from an enhanced bankruptcy regime and out-of-court settlement arrangements, areas where the IMF could provide technical assistance. For companies under severe financial distress, the BAMC has tools to convert corporate debt into equity. For other companies, the mission welcomes the initiatives undertaken by the Bank of Slovenia to facilitate debt restructuring. Viable publicly-owned undercapitalized companies should be recapitalized by the state or attract private capital. However, the mission cautions the authorities against taking actions on debt restructuring or recapitalization that can lead to ineffective use of public funds. Finally, Slovenia has to address corporate governance weaknesses. A Report of Standards and Codes on Corporate Governance by the World Bank and the OECD could help in this respect.

8. Slovenia needs to open up to foreign direct investment. Misconceived defense of ‘national interests,’ including the reluctance to sell assets to foreigners, burdens the budget and unduly prolongs the corporate and financial sector distress. A prominent privatization could convey a powerful signal to international investors.

Fiscal: Continuing a gradual structural adjustment

9. The frontloaded, expenditure-based, fiscal consolidation strategy remains broadly on track in 2013. The reduction in public sector wages and in transfers to households is projected to translate into sizeable expenditure savings this year, while the bulk of the impact of the pension reform will be felt over the medium term. However, the deepening of the recession, and in particular the decline in domestic demand, is projected to significantly reduce revenues, raising the deficit (excluding bank recapitalization costs) to about € 1½ billion in 2013.

10. Given the severity of the economic downturn, allowing full operation of automatic stabilizers is appropriate, and hence corrective measures are not warranted. Fiscal consolidation should continue over the medium term at its current pace of about 1 percent per year in structural terms, in order to gradually bring the budget close to balance and keep the public debt dynamics under control. The structure of public expenditure should be improved, especially in the area of social spending, as reliance on one-off measures like wage cuts is not desirable and is probably not sustainable.

11. Financing needs are large for 2013. Financing requirements are particularly pronounced in summer, with bank recapitalization needed soon and a large 18-month T-bill coming due in June. In all, financing needs for the remainder of the year (excluding the bonds to be issued by the BAMC) could reach some € 3 billion, and possibly more depending on bank recapitalization needs. A large part of this financing need should be met via external borrowing, given banks’ inability to absorb large amounts of government paper, but also to improve the maturity structure of government debt and reduce rollover risk. This highlights the importance of safeguarding market access in the near term.

Structural reforms: Important step forwards

12. Recent labor market and pension reforms are steps in the right direction. Labor market reform somewhat reduces the rigidity of permanent labor contracts and simplifies administrative procedures. With this reform, Slovenia’s employment protection index as measured by OECD will reach the OECD average. In parallel, the rules on fixed-term contracts were tightened to limit the segmentation of the labor market and encourage the use of permanent contracts. An important area not touched by the current reform is the student work program. For entry level positions companies prefer hiring student workers, which leads to increased unemployment among young graduates and extended study periods. Pension reform raises the effective retirement age, which along with other parametric and regulatory changes, will lead to a stabilization of pension expenditures as a share of GDP by 2020, but a new reform will be necessary in a few years. Both reforms are positive steps that are gradual rather than radical. Moreover, the changes have been thoroughly negotiated with social partners and were passed with near-unanimous support in the parliament, creating a stable and strong basis for further efforts.

We thank the authorities for open discussions, excellent cooperation, and warm hospitality.

Sources:



In earlier news, in mid-March the Slovenian government completed its planned buyout of two remaining large shareholders of the troubled bank NLB (Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d. Ljubljana), Slovenia’s largest bank with a market share of 24.9% by total assets at end-2012.

Firstly on 14 March the bank announced that on 11 March the Republic of Slovenia had bought 2,765,282 shares of NLB stock from Slovenia’s national compensation fund (Slovenska odškodninska družba, d.d.).

Then on 18 March the bank announced that on 11 March the government had purchased all 2,765,282 shares of NLB stock belonging to the Belgian banking group KBC Bank N.V.  KBC, which owned 21.65% of NLB voting shares, was obliged to divest itself of the shares as part of the restructuring plan that KBC entered into with the European Commission in November 2009, which stipulated, “KBC will cease its activities in Serbia (market share of KBC 1%), Russia (1%), Romania ... and Slovenia ...”

Finally, on 22 March the bank announced that on 15 March the Slovenian government had acquired an additional 8,707,483 shares of NLB stock from the national compensation fund.  As a result of this final transaction the government now holds 16,518,507 shares of NLB stock, giving it voting rights of 76.91%.

Sources:
Market share at end-2012: Profil NLB Skupine 4. četrtletje 2012


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Turkish Republic of North Cyprus – Bank association warns of possible inflow of laundered money to Northern Cyprus after announcement of deposit tax in Republic of Cyprus as part of EU bailout plan; Facing fierce opposition the “Eurogroup” reiterates its support for the deposit tax but grants Cypriot government flexibility in deciding the details so long as the overall fiscal target is met



On 19 March the chairman of the board of directors of the Northern Cyprus Banks’ Association (Kuzey Kıbrıs Bankalar Birliği – KKBB), Mr. Yunus Rahmioğlu, warned banks in Northern Cyprus not to accept funds coming from the South whose origin is not known.  He said that the South would undoubtedly experience an outflow of bank deposits held by foreigners, but pledged that banks in the North would be screening any incoming funds to avoid any possibility of money laundering.

Rahmioğlu noted that deposits in the “Greek system” (i.e., the banks of the Republic of Cyprus) amount to about € 21 bln, including a sizeable amount of deposits from Russia.  He went on to state that although the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is not universally recognized, at the present juncture the eyes of the world would be on Northern Cyprus, so that although he does not believe the incoming deposits will be particularly “hot”, he sees the need for these deposits to be investigated with particular diligence.

He pointed out that one of the reasons that the European Union wants deposits in the Republic of Cyprus to be taxed is because the EU suspects the Republic of Cyprus has been lax in its enforcement of anti-money laundering policies.  Rahmioğlu adds, that because the Northern Cyprus economy is very open to the outside and is constantly fighting against money laundering, it is crucial that “black money” not be allowed to enter Northern Cyprus at this juncture.

 
Background

On 15 March the informal association of eurozone finance ministers known as the “Eurogroup” held a press conference to announce that it had at long last succeeded in reaching an agreement with the authorities of the Republic of Cyprus (Κυπριακή Δημοκρατία).

The video summary of this press conference published on the Eurogroup’s website succeeds in not revealing any concrete details on the deal whatsoever, avoiding in particular any mention of the most controversial point under discussion, the possibility of the Cypriot government applying a “one-off” tax on bank deposits in Cyprus – termed a “stability levy” – in order to raise money for its coffers.

Any doubts that may have remained were dispelled when, on 16 March, the Eurogroup published a formal statement giving the outlines of the agreement it had reached with the Cypriot authorities.  The statement did in fact refer to the tax on bank deposits, but in language that implied that it was a spontaneous initiative on the part of the Cypriot authorities themselves in order to reduce the size of the total bailout package: “The Eurogroup further welcomes the Cypriot authorities' commitment to take further measures mobilising internal resources, in order to limit the size of the financial assistance linked to the adjustment programme. These measures include the introduction of an upfront one-off stability levy applicable to resident and non-resident depositors.”

After considerable unrest in Cyprus, strong negative reaction worldwide (most notably from Russia, whose depositors in Cyprus reportedly stand to lose € 2 bln under this plan) and turmoil on world markets, on 18 March the president of the Eurogroup, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, issued a new statement regarding the situation in Cyprus.  This statement is reproduced in full below.

(The “Eurogroup” is an informal organization among finance ministers of euro-area countries.  The finance ministers meet regularly to discuss matters relating to the euro, but the Eurogroup in itself exercises no authority, the authority resting instead with the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) of the Council of the European Union.)


18 March 2013

Statement by the Eurogroup President on Cyprus

The Eurogroup held a teleconference this evening to take stock of the situation in Cyprus.

I recall that the political agreement reached on 16 March on the cornerstones of the adjustment programme and the financing envelope for Cyprus reflects the consensus reached by the Cypriot government with the Eurogroup. The implementation of the reform measures included in the draft programme is the best guarantee for a more prosperous future for Cyprus and its citizens, through a viable financial sector, sound public finances and sustainable economic growth.

I reiterate that the stability levy on deposits is a one-off measure. This measure will - together with the international financial support - be used to restore the viability of the Cypriot banking system and hence, safeguard financial stability in Cyprus. In the absence of this measure, Cyprus would have faced scenarios that would have left deposit holders significantly worse off.

The Eurogroup continues to be of the view that small depositors should be treated differently from large depositors and reaffirms the importance of fully guaranteeing deposits below EUR 100.000. The Cypriot authorities will introduce more progressivity in the one-off levy compared to what was agreed on 16 March, provided that it continues yielding the targeted reduction of the financing envelope and, hence, does not impact the overall amount of financial assistance up to EUR 10bn.

The Eurogroup takes note of the authorities' decision to declare a temporary bank holiday in Cyprus on 19-20 March 2013 to safeguard the stability of the financial sector, and urges a swift decision by the Cypriot authorities and parliament to rapidly implement the agreed measures.

The euro area Member States stand ready to assist Cyprus in its reform efforts on the basis of the agreed adjustment programme.


Sources:
Eurozone Portal: Eurogroup

Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Estonia – IMF mission concludes visit, judges Estonia’s banks to be “profitable, liquid, and well capitalized” but suggests authorities institute loan-to-value and loan-to-income limits for mortgages



On 18 March a mission from the International Monetary Fund concluded a visit to Estonia and published a concluding statement in Tallinn.  Below are reproduced verbatim the sections of the statement that touch on the banking sector.

[...]

3. Risks to the outlook for 2013 will largely be on the downside. The risks stem primarily from a prolonged period of slow growth in the euro area. With two-thirds of Estonia’s exports going to the EU, delays in the euro area recovery could slow exports, weaken the labor market, reduce household’s ability to service their loans, and potentially hurt the quality of bank assets. The unwinding of past real and financial sector imbalances would be more protracted and weigh on domestic demand. Financial spillovers could emerge in the event of a sharp resurgence of global financial market volatility. Alternatively, faster-than-expected euro area recovery or unexpected export resilience would boost growth. In this case, continued labor market strength could fuel wage and price pressures.

[...]

Advancing Financial Sector Robustness

9. Estonia’s financial sector has continued to strengthen and, while risks remain, these are mitigated by improving balance sheets and prudential positions. Banks have remained profitable, liquid, and well capitalized despite extensive write-offs that have cut in half non-performing loans. In addition, rapidly growing domestic deposits have resulted in a record low loan-to-deposit ratio. Risks on the domestic side stem mostly from variable-interest mortgage loans tied to the six-month Euribor. Externally, a significant share of Estonian banks’ funding consists of foreign financing, which could be potentially volatile. Risks nonetheless appear manageable. At present, markets expect interest rates to remain low, while improved corporate and household debt-equity ratios and a strong labor market have raised the private sector’s capacity to service its debt. Finally, parent-banks’ funding of Estonian subsidiaries reflects a strategic commitment to highly profitable investments.

10. Macro-prudential policies can help further reduce risks. In tandem with parent supervisors and following relevant EU-level regulations, the timely adoption of the capital and liquidity provisions of the Capital Requirement Directive IV would enhance Estonia’s financial sector resilience. This would not unduly constrain banks’ margins or credit to the economy since Estonian banks already meet or exceed the likely requirements. In view of the prevalence of short-term variable interest rate-linked mortgages, the authorities should also consider introducing ceilings on loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios to reduce exposure to housing market developments and downside risks. Regarding the institutional structure, the central bank’s macro-prudential authority and existing tri-party (Eesti Pank, MoF, and FSA) forums can be further clarified and strengthened—in line with the European Systemic Risk Board’s recommendations—to advance the monitoring of systemic risks and limit potential fallout.

11. Deeper cross-border prudential arrangements can also enhance financial stability in Estonia. Over the years, Estonia and other Baltic nations have, together with their Nordic counterparts, developed an effective regional supervision framework underpinned by cooperation agreements and the establishment of the Nordic-Baltic Stability Group and Macroprudential Forum. Ongoing work has appropriately focused on establishing a burden-sharing mechanism and a common database for financial groups, as well as on preparing for cross-border crises simulations. In conjunction with EU-level initiatives, these efforts should move ahead by implementing key elements of the framework, notably by defining criteria for burden sharing.

12. The EU banking union would further Estonia’s financial stability in coordination with long-standing close Nordic-Baltic cooperation arrangements. The banking union can bolster financial soundness throughout the EU. In this regard, progress has been made in establishing a single supervisory mechanism (SSM), which will place Estonia’s two largest banks under the direct supervision of the ECB. Additional efforts are however needed to clarify the role and powers of the Estonian authorities in this context, including in supervisory colleges and with regards to the exchange of confidential information. As the SSM and other elements of the banking union go forward, particular attention will be needed to avoid disrupting existing Nordic-Baltic supervisory arrangements.

[...]

Video of press conference

Sources:
Original text in English from IMF website: Estonia – 2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission (2013-03-18)
Estonian version of text from website of the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank): Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi 2013. aasta artikkel IV konsultatsioon. Esialgsed järeldused (2013-03-18)
Video of press conference: IMFi visiidi pressikohtumine - 18.03.2013 (length: 45:33)


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant



Saturday, March 16, 2013

Russia – New law closes loophole for the opening of branches in Russia by banks based abroad; Putin nominates economist Elvira Nabiullina to succeed Sergey Ignatiev as central bank governor; Stromkombank merges with Expobank



On 14 March the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, signed a law passed by the Federal Assembly that prohibits the opening of branches in Russia by banks based abroad.  The very short law revises the “Law on Banks and Banking Activity”, the “Law on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”, and the “Law on Currency Regulation and Currency Control” to delete references to the possibility of establishing branches of foreign banks.

Although the opening of branches in Russia by foreign banks had previously been provided for by law, in practice no such branches had been opened because orders for their registration had not been issued.  The new law simply removes any references to “branches of foreign banks” (“филиалов иностранных банков”) or similar terminology still to be found in existing laws.

The law, which implements agreements obtained by Russia during the talks leading to its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), is designed to keep Russian banks from operating at a competitive disadvantage, since Russian branches of banks based abroad would not be subject in Russia to the same regulatory oversight and the same restrictions on minimum reserves and funds transfers as banks based in Russia.

Analysis

Despite misleading headlines that have been applied to this minor event by the Russian and foreign press – such as “Putin signs ban on foreign bank branches” – the new law does not ban the opening of branches by “foreign banks” that are operating in Russia through subsidiaries, but only the opening of branches in Russia by banks located abroad.  A large number of foreign banks are already operating in Russia through wholly- or partly-owned subsidiaries, such as the following:

  ·  Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (ЗАО "Банк оф Токио-Мицубиси ЮФДжей (Евразия)")
  ·  BNP Paribas ("БНП ПАРИБА Банк" ЗАО)
  ·  Citibank (ЗАО КБ "Ситибанк")
  ·  Crédit Agricole (ЗАО "Креди Агриколь Корпоративный и Инвестиционный Банк")
  ·  Deutsche Bank ("Дойче Банк" ООО)
  ·  Goldman Sachs (ООО "Голдман Сакс Банк")
  ·  HSBC ("Эйч-эс-би-си Банк (РР)" (ООО))
  ·  Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (АКБ "ТОРГОВО-ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫЙ БАНК КИТАЯ" (Москва) (ЗАО))
  ·  ING Bank (ИНГ БАНК (ЕВРАЗИЯ) ЗАО))
  ·  JP Morgan (КБ "Дж.П. Морган Банк Интернешнл" (ООО))
  ·  Morgan Stanley (ООО "Морган Стэнли Банк")
  ·  Nordea Bank (ООО "Нордеа Банк")
  ·  OTP Bank (ООО "ОТП Банк")
  ·  Raiffeisen Bank (ЗАО "Райффайзенбанк")
  ·  Royal Bank of Scotland (ЗАО "Королевский Банк Шотландии")
  ·  UBS (ООО "Ю Би Эс Банк")
  ·  UniCredit (ЗАО "ЮниКредит Банк")

If foreign banks are already operating in Russia, then why the need for a ban on the opening of branches by banks based abroad?  Doesn’t this run counter to the EU’s principle of a single market for financial services, of a “EU passport” for banks?  “The principle of holding a single licence means that a bank which has a licence issued in one EU country may undertake activities in any EU country upon notifying that country that it intends to open an office.” (National Bank of Poland)

Precisely.  The new law indicates that Russia, like not a few other nations in Europe, does not trust banking supervision as carried out in certain areas of the EU, and is not willing to expose itself to the dangers that the EU’s “single license” system for banks could pose.

The reason for a distinction between foreign banks operating in Russia through local subsidiaries and through branches can best be seen in the events surrounding the 2008 Icelandic banking crisis, particularly in what happened outside of Iceland.  In the years leading up to that crisis the three largest commercial banks in Iceland – Landsbanki (Landsbanki Íslands hf.), Glitnir (Glitnir banki hf.), and Kaupthing (Kaupþing banki hf.) – had set up subsidiaries and branches elsewhere in Europe (and beyond) so as to attract deposits and offer various banking services:

Landsbanki operated through wholly-owned local subsidiaries in Luxembourg (Landsbanki Luxembourg S.A.) and in Guernsey (Landsbanki Guernsey Limited), but in the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, Norway, and Canada it operated through local branches of the parent bank, Landsbanki Íslands hf. in Reykjavik, Iceland.

Glitnir operated in Luxembourg through a fully-owned bank, Glitnir Bank Luxembourg S.A., but in the UK and Denmark it operated through branches.

Kaupthing operated through wholly-owned local subsidiaries in Luxembourg (Kaupthing Luxembourg, S.A.), Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Isle of Man, Japan, and Hong Kong.  But in Switzerland and Belgium it operated through local branches of the Luxembourg subsidiary, Kaupthing Luxembourg S.A., while in Finland, Germany, Austria, Norway, Dubai, and Qatar the bank operated through branches of Kaupþing banki hf. in Reykjavik.

In the case of the branches, when it became clear to authorities abroad that the parent banks in Reykjavik were falling into trouble, these authorities often felt compelled to take emergency measures to ensure that deposits in the local branches of Icelandic banks did not get transferred away to Iceland (or Luxembourg) to save the main bank.

Thus on 6 October 2008 the Finnish Financial Supervision Authority took control of Kaupthing’s Helsinki branch to prevent it from transferring funds back to Iceland and banned the Finnish subsidiaries of Icelandic banks Glitnir and Straumur from transferring assets to their parent banks, on 8 October in the UK the Treasury issued the Landsbanki Freezing Order to keep the London subsidiary of Landsbanki from transferring UK deposits back to Iceland, and on 9 October the Swiss Federal Banking Commission announced that it had appointed commissioners to take control of the Geneva branch of Kaupthing and had forbidden that branch to make any payments in excess of 5,000 CHF.

The precautions were necessary, but in some cases they came too late.

A Kaupthing subsidiary in the UK, Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Limited (KSF), had already begun paying 500-600 million GBP of margin calls in behalf of the parent bank in Iceland:


The FSA decision that Kaupthing, Singer & Friedlander Limited (KSF) breached its threshold conditions.

 [...]

The Treasury was informed by the FSA that KSF was, prior to 3 October 2008, paying margin calls, estimated at £500-600mn, on behalf of Kaupthing Bank hf, thus providing an effective transfer of funds to its parent company. The FSA agreed a voluntary variation of permission (VvoP) with KSF on 3 October 2008 which prevented this continuing.

 [...]

Annex A: Chronology of events ahead of the failure of Icelandic banks

 [...]

3 October 2008:

Mr. Maxwell called Ms Arnadottir about Kaupthing Bank hf, stressing Treasury concerns that the situation at Kaupthing Bank hf was deteriorating, with a severe liquidity shortage. He also highlighted Treasury concern that very large amounts of liquidity have been upstreamed to Iceland earlier this week to meet obligations of the Icelandic holding company. She said she knew nothing about action by the subsidiary but would get back to him shortly.

– HM Treasury: Events leading up to the failure of Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Limited (June 2012)

And Landsbanki had already begun transferring deposits from its “Icesave” foreign branches back to Iceland in 2007 or early 2008:

In the hearing before the SIC, Eiríkur Guðnason, Governor of the Central Bank, stated that one of the directors of Landsbanki had told him in late 2007, in the period leading up to the Central Bank amending its rules on reserve requirements regarding deposits into the accounts of the banks abroad, that Landsbanki was not transferring to Iceland the funds accrued to the deposit accounts in the branches abroad. It was not until after the middle of 2008 that it had emerged that these funds were being transferred to Iceland. Davíð Oddsson, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, stated in the hearing before the SIC that it had not been until well into 2008 that the Board had realised that the funds accrued to the Icesave accounts were being transferred home to some extent. Eiríkur Guðnason noted that in hindsight it had been a bad mistake to discontinue the detailed information acquisition previously employed by the Central Bank on the division of deposits by branches, and only oblige the banks to submit this information in overall summary statements. It was not until after amendments had been made to the rules on reserve requirements in March 2008 that the Central Bank started collecting information where a distinction was made between deposits of foreign parties in branches abroad on the one hand and domestic branches and headquarters on the other hand.

– Althing (Rannsóknarnefnd Alþingis): Report of the Special Investigation Commission (SIC): Chapter 18 - Deposits in Financial Institutions in Branches Abroad (April 2010)


Could it be that the Icelandic banks were aware of the differences between a branch and a subsidiary when they set up their operations abroad?


5.1. Icesave and the decision to operate through London branch

[...]

The launch of Icesave took place in October 2006. Prior to the launch, the decision was made to operate the accounts through the London Branch office, instead of a UK subsidiary. The main reason was that a branch office method would facilitate the use of the deposits in the overall operation of the bank, i.e. upstreaming of funds for use in other parts of the group, due to the manner in which UK authorities have chosen to implement EEA regulations.

Developments leading up to the Icelandic banking crisis in October 2008, by Halldor Jon Kristjansson and Sigurjon Thorvaldur Arnason, Former joint CEOs of Landsbanki Islands hf., Draft, February 25, 2009


18.2.5 Findings of the Special Investigation Commission on the Icesave Accounts in the London Branch of Landsbanki Íslands hf.

As previously related, it is clear that the directors of Landsbanki Íslands hf. decided to locate the Icesave deposit accounts at the London branch of the bank rather than a subsidiary so that it would possible to move funds upstream from the accounts. The reason for this is that British rules on large exposures place considerable limitations on such transfer of funds in the case of subsidiaries. However, this arrangement had the fateful consequences that the deposits were guaranteed in Iceland by the Depositors’ and Investors’ Guarantee Fund. It was also clear that this involved incurring deposit obligations on behalf of Landsbanki vis-à-vis individuals in the UK and that withdrawals, including in case of a run on the bank, would have to be made in pounds whereas Landsbanki could not expect a last resort facilitation from the Central Bank in a currency other than the Icelandic króna.

As already noted, Landsbanki’s Icesave deposit accounts in Amsterdam were operated through a branch and not a subsidiary. According to Dutch law, there are no rules comparable to those in English law which significantly limit the possibility of transferring funds from a subsidiary to other parts of a banking group. According to the legal opinion obtained by Landsbanki from Allen & Overy on 25 March 2008, it was of very little significance for liquidity management within the banking group whether the deposits were accepted through a branch or subsidiary in the Netherlands. It, therefore, seems that Landsbanki’s position on the liquidity management of the group did not require choosing the subsidiary form in the Netherlands like the case was in Britain.

When this is kept in mind, it is nearly incomprehensible that Landsbanki decided to start accepting Icesave deposits at its branch in Amsterdam rather than a Dutch subsidiary. Landsbanki thus took the obvious risk of having the same issues that the British media had covered in the preceeding months pointed out in the Netherlands sooner or later. This is rendered even more incomprehensible when it is taken into consideration that according to Dutch law, there do not seem to have been any rules in effect comparable to those which in English law significantly limit the possibility of transferring funds from a subsidiary to other parts of a banking group. The only explanation given for this is that it took longer to establish a subsidiary than open a branch and that it was not until the first half of 2008 that the establishment of a subsidiary was considered.

– Althing (Rannsóknarnefnd Alþingis): Report of the Special Investigation Commission (SIC): Chapter 18 - Deposits in Financial Institutions in Branches Abroad (April 2010)

Sources:
Developments leading up to the Icelandic banking crisis in October 2008, by Halldor Jon Kristjansson and Sigurjon Thorvaldur Arnason, Former joint CEOs of Landsbanki Islands hf.  DRAFT, February 25, 2009



In other news, on 12 March the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, nominated one of his close advisors, the economist Elvira Nabiullina, to be the successor to Sergey Ignatiev, the present Chairman of the Bank of Russia (Председатель Центрального банка Российской Федерации), when the latter’s third term comes to an end on 23 June.

Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina (Эльвира Сахипзадовн Набиуллина), an ethnic Tatar, was born on 29 October 1963 in Ufa, the capital of the Bashkir Autonomous S.S.R. (now the Republic of Bashkortostan) in the southern Urals.  Her father was a driver, and her mother worked in an instrument factory.

Elvira (“Elya”) graduated in economics from Moscow State University with honors.  In 1994 she became deputy head of the Department of Economic Reform within the Ministry of Economy, from 1997 to 1998 was Deputy Minister of Economy, and from 2000 to 2003 was First Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade. 


In 2007, under President Dmitry Medvedev, she was appointed Minister of Economic Development and Trade (министр экономического развития и торговли).  In 2008 the position’s title was changed to Minister of Economic Development, and she held the post until Medvedev ceded the presidency to Putin in May 2012.  Since May 2012 she has held the post of Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs.

During the nomination ceremony held on 12 March, Nabiullina requested to Putin that, if the Duma should endorse her candidacy, Ignatiev be asked to stay on with the Bank of Russia as an advisor to the chairman, a request to which both Putin and Ignatiev acceded.

On 15 March the daily newspaper Vedomosti reported that three government officials had confirmed to the paper that Tatyana Golikova, presently an assistant to the president for the social and economic development of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is likely to succeed Nabiullina as Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs.

Golikova with Nabiullina

Putin with Golikova in 2011

Sources:



Finally, on 13 March the Bank of Russia communicated that on 7 March it had removed the commercial bank Stromkombank ("СТРОМКОМБАНК" ООО КБ) from its registry of credit organizations because the bank had ceased to exist, having been removed on 7 March from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (Единый государственный реестр юридических лиц – ЕГРЮЛ).

On 7 March Stromkombank, based in Krasnoyarsk, became part of Expobank (ООО "Экспобанк"), a Moscow-based universal bank with 13 offices in 7 cities in Russia (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo, Barnaul, Yekaterinburg and Perm), and which also serves customers in Tyumen, Surgut, and Nefteyugansk via remote workstations.  On 24 December the two banks had announced that in the first quarter of 2013 they would be merging, with Stromkombank to become the Krasnoyarsk branch of Expobank.

Previously, in September 2012 Expobank had acquired 100% of Sibbiznesbank (ОАО СИБИРСКИЙ БАНК РАЗВИТИЯ БИЗНЕСА – Сиббизнесбанк), a commercial bank headquartered in Surgut in Tyumen Region in Siberia.

Sources:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant