Monday, December 31, 2012

Russia – Sberbank expects to register profit of € 8.7 for 2012; ATMs in Irkutsk run out of cash as New Year’s approaches; man who robbed bank in Ekaterinburg with “suicide vest” arrested by police; Expert RA issues credit ratings for two banks; Russian press spreading Daily Mail article quoting Ernst & Young as claiming global banks “have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far”


On 29 December, in a television interview with RIA’s news show “Russia 24”, Herman Gref, the CEO of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank (ОАО «Сбербанк России»), stated that the bank expects to show a profit for 2012 of 350 bln RUB (€ 8.7 bln), the largest in the history of the bank.  Mr. Gref also expressed his approval of legal changes due to enter into effect in Russia in 2013 that will require banks that offer higher interest rates on deposits to pay higher premiums into the deposit insurance fund.

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On 31 December it was reported that ATMs at banks in Irkutsk, one of the largest cities in Siberia, had run out of cash due to unexpectedly vigorous pre-New Year’s spending.  The banks began running out of cash on 27 December, leading to large crowds and long lines, and the time-consuming process of frequently replenishing ATMs with cash – carried out under police protection – could not keep up with demand.  Particularly hard hit was Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank.  It is reported that by 30 December almost all ATMs in the city had run completely out of cash.

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In earlier news, on 29 December a man robbed a bank in Ekaterinburg.  On Saturday morning a man entered the Shchorsa Street branch of Sberbank carrying a box in his hands and claiming to be a terrorist, and threatened to blow up the bank if he were not given money.  According to the press spokesman of the Interior Ministry for Sverdlovsk Oblast, bank employees were able to press a silent alarm, which police received at 10:10 A.M., but when the suspect saw police vehicles arriving he fled the bank, and was seen to be wearing what seemed like an explosive suicide vest.

The suspect was eventually hunted down and cornered by police, and a bomb squad was called in to defuse the device that was strapped to the suspect while three neighboring houses were evacuated.  In the end the device was found to consist of red and black wires, a cell phone, some large batteries, and 18 bars of soap.  The suspect, born in 1994 and a sophomore at the faculty of electrical engineering at Ural Federal University, claimed that the previous night – Friday – he had gotten drunk on whiskey with some friends, who had dressed him up with the makeshift “suicide vest” and sent him off to “storm” the bank, and these claims were later corroborated.

The suspect, who made off with at least 45,000 RUB (€ 1,100) in cash, will be charged under Art. 207 (knowingly providing false information about a terrorist act) and Art. 162 (robbery) of the criminal code.

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Also on 29 December, the private rating agency Expert RA (Рейтинговое агентство «Эксперт РА») confirmed its rating of “A” for the commercial bank “Radiotechbank” (ОАО НКБ «Радиотехбанк»; headquartered in Nizhny Novgorod, east of Moscow; total assets as of 1 December: 1.956 bln RUB).  The decision to confirm the rating, with an outlook of “stable”, was influenced positively by the bank’s high capital adequacy ratio (ratio of own funds – “N1” – of 18.9% as of 1 December) and its high liquidity (instant liquidity ratio – “N2” – of 57.9% as of 1 December), but was negatively influenced by the bank’s low ROE (5.0% in 3Q 2012) as well as low interest income and commission income.

On the same day, Expert RA also assigned a rating of “B++” to the commercial bank “Necklace Bank” (ООО КБ «Нэклис-Банк»; headquartered in Moscow; total assets at 1 December: 4.698 bln RUB).  Positive factors were a low default rate on loans and a high instant liquidity ratio (N2 = 79.19% on 1 Dec.), while negative factors were a high concentration of loans with high-risk borrowers and a low level of security to the loan portfolio.

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In earlier news, on 28 December the bank-news site Banki.ru published a Russian translation of an article that had appeared on 27 December on the website of the Daily Mail in the UK.  The Daily Mail article read as follows:

Webpage title: Ernst & Young: Banks 'have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far'  Mail Online


Global banks 'have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far' warns accountancy giant
By James Salmon

Banks in the Western world are on the hook for even bigger losses on toxic loans than they have admitted so far.

This is according to a bleak report from accountants Ernst & Young.

It said lenders across many developed markets are ‘unwilling,  or unable’ to write down asset values to more realistic levels and accept credit losses.

This raises the grim prospect of banks taking more huge hits in the new year as they cope with the fallout from reckless behaviour before the credit crunch.

It comes after the Bank of England last month warned that banks may require up to £15billion of extra provisions to cover bad loans.

Lenders have billions of pounds tied up in troubled economies across the eurozone, including Spain and Italy. And state-backed RBS has £19billion in Irish residential mortgages – 60 per cent  of which are in negative equity.

Banks in Western economies are also poorly capitalised, in stark contrast  to their counterparts in developing markets, the report said.

It also raised fears that the benefits of a European banking union could  be eroded by disagreements about how it should be implemented.

This includes whether funds should be released to bail out troubled lenders in Ireland and Spain.


The story, with its alarming headline, was picked up by hundreds of news aggregator websites in English, and the Banki translation has found its way onto more than 30 Russian websites.  Unfortunately the quotation given in the headline itself does not come from the Ernst & Young report referred to, and the report itself is much more bland than implied, being anything but “bleak”.

The report, published on 18 December by Ernst & Young, is entitled Time for bold action: Global banking outlook 2013–14.  Not only is the phrase “have billions more in toxic debt than they have admitted so far” nowhere to be found in the report – a Google search of the Internet finds this phrase appearing only in the Daily Mail article by James Salmon and its repostings elsewhere – but in fact the text of the report does not use either the word “billions” or “toxic”.  Leaving aside the frightening commentary added by Mr. Salmon, it is true that the report does contain the following passage:

Banks across many developed markets remain undercapitalized and are unwilling, or unable, to write down asset values to more realistic levels and accept credit losses. Many of those same banks will also face the challenge of weaning themselves off central bank liquidity support before the repayment deadlines. The economic recovery will alleviate some of these problems, but further bank restructuring is likely in the short to medium term.

as well as the following:

Unfortunately, the benefits from these positive steps could be eroded, with disagreements over the construct of the banking union and whether the ESM can be used for legacy issues at banks in Ireland and Spain. Until these remaining uncertainties are addressed, and prospects improve in the peripheral economies, we’re likely to see continued challenges for banks and borrowers as GDP growth in Europe remains muted.

Nevertheless the report – like its immediate predecessor, Making the right moves: Global banking outlook 2012-13 – is far from taking any strong positions or even being particularly informative, but is written at the level of pabulum.  The content is extremely generic, an alternation of sweeping statements that appear to say something bold followed by qualifying phrases that subtract a large amount of the force from what preceded.  It reads almost like a horoscope, and could perhaps be rewritten as a horoscope without losing anything of value: “Sagittarius: Decisive, pro-active planning for regulatory changes in 2013 can place your bank in a position of strength, but exposure to problem loans risks making the year difficult for you.  You may need to make major decisions during the year, particularly regarding entry into new markets and your pricing model for retail customers, but be ready for surprises.  A bank close to you will go through resolution this year.”

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Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant