Monday, January 28, 2013

Hungary – Report indicates that in 3Q 2012 Hungary and Slovenia were the CEE countries suffering the highest rate of withdrawal of Western bank funds, IMF issues statement at conclusion of mission visit to Hungary

On 24 January the European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) – better known as the “Vienna Initiative” – published the latest issue of its “CESEE Deleveraging Monitor”, a quarterly report on the level of funds held by Western banks in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, compiled on the basis of data reported to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).  This latest report, six pages in length, covers the funding situation in the third quarter of 2012.

According to the report, 3Q 2012 was the fifth quarter in a row in which Western banks carried out a net withdrawal of funds from their subsidiaries in the CEE area.  The quarter was also marked by a shift of funds from the rest of the CEE area to Russia and Turkey.

There was considerable variation across the region.  While Hungary and Slovenia had the highest rate of funding withdrawal between June and September, equal to 2% or more of their GDP, Slovakia and Montenegro received large inflows of funds.

Source:


In other news, on 28 January a mission of the International Monetary Fund concluded its visit to Hungary and issued in Budapest a fairly brief Concluding Statement.  Below is reproduced verbatim the section of the statement that deals with the banking sector, with emphasis as per the original:


Financial sector policy

9. The banking system is facing great challenges as it seeks to redefine its role in an uncertain environment. Banks are generally liquid and most appear well capitalized but they continue to experience losses resulting from high non-performing loans (NPLs) and related provisioning, a heavy tax burden, and the mortgage pre-payment scheme. The share of corporate and household NPLs increased significantly in 2012 to 21 and 15 percent, respectively, and is expected to rise further in 2013. Restructured loans continue to grow and now make up a significant part of banks’ portfolios. Portfolio cleaning remains sluggish reflecting a frozen real estate market and banks’ unwillingness to realize losses, as well as legal and regulatory obstacles to debt collection. Banks’ loan portfolio is contracting, unlike in most regional countries, against a depressed economic environment and a sharp reduction in external funding. Unless bank lending recovers, the economy will struggle to grow.

10. A turnaround of bank lending requires improving the banking system’s operational environment. Key steps would include increasing the predictability of government policies, scaling down the tax burden, including the retroactive levies, and facilitating conditions to help banks clean up their asset portfolio, including by removing tax, legal, and regulatory obstacles. These would be a more effective, and less costly and distortive, way to restore credit growth, as opposed to government initiatives to stimulate credit through tax incentives for specific bank lending and direct lending by state-controlled banks. The government’s intention to reach a new agreement with banks is encouraging, but tangible steps would be needed to address the underlying problems that undermine lending activity.

11. Prudential norms could contribute to reducing still-large FX swap exposures. The stock of FX swaps of the banking sector has declined by nearly one third since end-2011, in tandem with the reduction of FX-denominated assets. However, it still poses liquidity and rollover risks and banks should be encouraged to turn to more stable sources of external funding.

12. The crisis management and resolution frameworks need to be upgraded in key areas. A clear framework, outlining the powers and responsibilities of the resolution authority, the triggers, and the financing arrangements, would improve the timeliness and cost-effectiveness of remedial action, if and when, needed. The authorities are working in this direction and legislation is being drafted.

Source:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Slovenia & Croatia – EC regards as urgent an agreement between Slovenia and Croatia on the status of former depositors’ accounts at defunct Ljubljanska Banka


On 25 January, at a midday press conference held by the European Commission, journalists posed several questions to Peter Stano, spokesman for Štefan Füle, the EC commissioner in charge of Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy.  The questions regarded the degree of EC involvement in the ongoing negotiations between Croatia and Slovenia regarding settlement of the Ljubljanska Banka dispute, a dispute that sees Croatia attempting to obtain compensation for Croatian depositors in the now-defunct bank – which was headquartered in Yugoslavia's Socialist Republic of Slovenia – and Slovenia in return threatening to withhold its ratification of Croatia’s entry into the EU, which is scheduled to take place on 1 July 2013.

In reply to the questions, Stano indicated that the Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Mr. Füle, had recently communicated to both sides the need for urgency in their reaching an agreement in order that Croatia may accede to the EU on 1 July as scheduled:

“... And most recently the Commissioner has highlighted the urgency of intensified efforts between Slovenia and Croatia in order to find a mutually acceptable solution to the Ljubljanska Banka issue.  And let me add, in this context, that at this point of time frankly it is really ... any action, any statement, or any behavior which is not conducive to reaching such a mutually acceptable solution to the Ljubljanska Banka issue ... any statement and actions is simply not helpful.

... As the Commissioner has said several times, that this is really necessary, as soon as possible, for both sides to urgently find mutually acceptable solution to this issue.  It is for the both sides to find this solution, and it is urgently needed.”

This reiteration of urgency by the Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy comes little more than two weeks after a first visit to Brussels by Slovenia’s newly-elected president, Borut Pahor, during which EC President José Manuel Barroso is reported to have insisted to Pahor that Slovenia must respect the 1 July deadline for Croatia’s accession to the EU regardless of the outcome of the Ljubljanska Banka dispute.

Sources:
Video of press conference: LIVE EC Midday press briefing (2013-01-25)
Background: Slovenian bank saga finally draws to an end (2010-11-18 10:42)


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant



Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Russia – Net profit of Bank of Moscow in 2012 up 45% to € 204 mln, National Reserve Bank posts loss for 2012 of € 3.2 mln, IMF mission meets with Bank of Russia’s Ignatiev and issues statement about state of Russian economy


Filings with the Bank of Russia indicate that the commercial bank Bank of Moscow (АКБ «Банк Москвы» ОАО)  recorded for 2012 a net profit (прибыль после налогообложения) of 8.215 bln RUB (€ 204 mln) as calculated by Russian accounting standards (“RAS” – РСБУ).  This is an increase of 45.3% over the net profit of 5.653 bln RUB recorded in 2011, but still well below the net profit of 11.391 bln RUB registered in 2010.  (On 31 Dec. 2012 one euro equaled 40.2446 RUB.)

As of 31 December 2012 the bank was ranked #6 among Russian banks by assets, with net assets of 1.377 trillion RUB (€ 34.21 bln), equivalent to roughly 10% of the assets of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank (13.591 tln RUB).

Sources:


Filings with the Bank of Russia also indicate that the commercial bank National Reserve Bank (АКБ «Национальный Резервный Банк» ОАО) recorded for 2012 a net loss (убыток после налогообложения) of 130.78 mln RUB (€ 3.259 mln) as calculated according to RAS.  This compares with a net profit of 122 mln RUB recorded by the bank in 2011 and a net profit of 2,934 mln RUB in 2010.  In 2012 the bank worked on cost optimization by selling off shares on its balance sheet and non-core assets.

As of 31 December 2012 the bank was ranked #116 among Russian banks by assets, with net assets of 31.63 bln RUB (€ 786 mln). 

Sources:


On 23 January the rating agency AK&M (ЗАО «Рейтинговое агентство AK&M») confirmed its earlier credit rating of “A” on the national scale – with an outlook of “stable” – for the commercial bank IntrustBank (АКБ «ИнтрастБанк» ОАО).

The main positive factors affecting the decision were growth in the bank’s own funds (24.5% increase in the first 11 months of 2012), the bank’s liquidity measures (N2 = 72.8%, N3 = 87.4%, and N4 = 26.3% as of 1 Dec. 2012), and the bank’s good performance (asset growth and net income), while negative factors were the low quality of the bank’s capital (Tier 2 / Tier 1 = 75.9% as of 1 Dec. 2012), the low quality of its loan portfolio (Category 1 = 2.6%, Category 2 = 49.4%, Category 3 = 44.4%), and a relatively high concentration of credit risk (N7 = 519.98%, but still below the Bank of Russia’s maximum of 800%).

IntrustBank, which is headquartered in Moscow and received its banking license in 2002, had net assets of 11.922 bln RUB (€ 296.2 mln) as of 31 December 2012, making it rank #236 among Russian banks for net assets.

Source:


On 22 January the Bank of Russia issued a monthly statistical update on the banking sector in Russia.  The following are some highlights:

In 2012 the total assets of commercial banks grew by 18.9%, from 41,627.5 bln RUB to 49,509.6 bln RUB (€ 1,230.2 bln).  Of assets in the banking sector, the share of assets held by banks going through bankruptcy-prevention measures declined from 4.5% at the beginning of 2012 to 3.9% at the end of the year.

In terms of profitability, in 2012 a total of 901 of Russia’s 956 registered banks recorded profits or broke even, for a combined total of 1,021.3 bln RUB (€ 25.38 bln), while the remaining 55 banks showed a combined loss of 9.4 bln RUB (€ 0.23 bln).  For comparison, in 2011 a total of 928 out of Russia’s 978 banks had profits or broke even (combined profit of 848.2 bln RUB), while 50 banks registered losses (combined loss of 5.6 bln RUB).

The concentration of the banking sector remained largely unchanged in 2012: as of 1 January 2013 the top 5 banks in Russia had 50.3% of all system assets, the next 15 banks (#6-20) controlled 19.5% of all assets, and the next 30 banks (#21-50) controlled 11.6% of assets, while the banks ranked 51-200 had 12.9% of assets, the three hundred banks ranked 201-500 together had just 4.5% of assets, and the remaining several hundred banks (#501-956) controlled a mere 1.1% of assets in the commercial banking system.

In 2012 total loans to individuals grew by 39.4%, from 5,539.7 bln RUB to 7,721.9 bln RUB (€ 191.87 bln), while overdue loans to individuals during the same period increased 7.6%, from 290.4 bln RUB to 312.5 bln RUB (€ 7.77 bln).

Source:


In other news, on 23 January, at the conclusion of a visit to Russia by a team from the International Monetary Fund, the IMF issued a press release.  The brief press release is reproduced below in its entirety.  (Emphasis as per original.)


An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission headed by Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo visited Moscow during January 16-23. The team met with Finance Minister Siluanov, Central Bank of Russia Governor Ignatiev, other senior officials, representatives of the business community, and academics. At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Spilimbergo made the following statement today in Moscow:

“A moderate expansion of the Russian economy of 3.7 percent is projected for 2013. In 2012, the Russian economy experienced historically low unemployment with high capacity utilization, though growth slowed somewhat to 3.6 percent from 4.3 percent in 2011. The outlook is subject to downside risks, notably from international oil prices. Domestic risks include a negative impact from rapid retail credit growth. Inflation is expected to ease slightly to around six percent in 2013, and will remain above the medium-term target without further policy action.

“The macroeconomic policy framework is moving in the right direction. The authorities have strengthened their capacity and buffers to manage volatility and crises, and have adopted a new fiscal rule and a more flexible exchange rate policy. Further strengthening of the macroeconomic framework, as well as an acceleration of structural reforms, are needed to achieve higher, sustainable growth.

“Strict and transparent implementation of the new oil price-based fiscal rule will help smooth spending volatility and contain spending pressures. However, under the rule, the non-oil fiscal deficit will stay above the level that is consistent with replenishing fiscal buffers, facilitating balanced economic growth, and ensuring adequate saving of the income from the nation's exhaustible oil resources. The authorities should consider a gradual shift to a more conservative oil reference price rule. A tighter fiscal stance would also help contain inflationary pressure. Fiscal adjustment will need to be underpinned by reforms, including of the pension and health care systems. Securing sustainability of the pension system necessitates an increase in the effective pension age and contribution period.

“Monetary policy should stay on hold for now, but maintain a tightening bias. The Central Bank of Russia should stand ready to take further action to head off price pressures, especially if steps towards more fiscal adjustment are not undertaken. The mission supports the Central Bank of Russia's planned move to formal inflation targeting and to bring the headline inflation rate down to 4-5 percent by 2014. To this end, further increases in exchange rate flexibility and improvements in the monetary operations framework are critical.

“In the financial sector, further steps to promote sound financial intermediation are needed to help underpin investment, growth, and macroeconomic stability. Key shortcomings identified in the 2011 IMF assessment of Russia’s financial sector should be addressed. To strengthen the supervisory framework, the Central Bank of Russia should be granted adequate authority to effectively supervise bank holding companies and related entities, to address connected lending, and to use professional judgment in applying regulations to individual banks. In response to the emerging risk of overheating in retail lending, the Central Bank of Russia should stand ready to implement further prudential measures as needed, in addition to those recently announced.

“Structural reforms should be accelerated to boost sustainable economic growth. Russia’s recent WTO accession should strengthen the business climate by making it more rules-based and predictable, and should be seized upon to strengthen the momentum for domestic reforms. We broadly agree with the current plans to strengthen the investment climate, the government’s privatization agenda, and the recommendations in Russia’s Strategy 2020 report. Accelerated implementation of these plans is paramount.”

Source:
IMF press release: Statement by IMF Mission to Russia (2013-01-23)


Finally, on 24 January the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which is headed by the bank’s governor, Sergey Mikhaylovich Ignatiev (Сергей Михайлович Игнатьев, Председатель Центрального банка Российской Федерации), is scheduled to hold an extraordinary meeting to consider candidates for two deputy chairman positions.  According to insiders who spoke with the news service Liga, the most likely candidates for the two posts are Alexei Tkachenko (Алексей Ткаченко), presently director of the central bank’s General Department of Banking Supervision, and Nikolai N. Udovichenko (Николай Николаевич Удовиченко), the CEO of Ukreximbank.

Sources:
Biography of Nikolai N. Udovichenko at site of Ukreximbank: Руководство » Председатель правления


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant


Monday, January 21, 2013

Azerbaijan – Bank Respublika announces net income of € 9.5 mln for 2012, Parabank issues € 5.7 mln in unsecured bonds


On 21 January the commercial bank Bank Respublika (“Bank Respublika” ASC) released basic information on its results for 4Q 2012.  Among the highlights, the bank’s total assets on 31 December 2012 reached 430,841,000 AZN (€ 415 mln), up 11.9% from the end of the previous quarter and up 37.7% from the beginning of the year.  (1 EUR equaled 1.0388 AZN on 31 Dec. 2012.)  During the year the bank’s total loan portfolio grew by 35.6%, ending the year at 234.7 mln AZN (€ 226 mln).  Net income for the year, after taxes, was 9.844 mln AZN (€ 9.48 mln).  (N.B.: The consumer price index in Azerbaijan rose just 1.1% in 2012.)

In earlier news, on 18 January, after application by the underwriter Chelsea Capital (“Çelsi Kapital” MMC), the Baku Stock Exchange began listing on its non-quotation list a new issue of 5-year bonds by Parabank (“Parabank” ASC).  The new bond issue consists of 6,000 bonds with a par value of 1,000 AZN (€ 957) each, for a total value of 6 mln AZN.  The interest rate for the unsecured bonds is set at 15%, to be paid quarterly.  The prospectus for the bonds was approved on 17 December 2012 by the State Committee for Securities (Qiymətli Kağızlar üzrə Dövlət Komitəsi – QKDK) and received the issue number AZ2004003805, and the approved prospectus was published on the website of the Baku Stock Exchange on 24 December 2012.

Sources:
Bank Respublika: Simplified balance sheet for 4Q 2012: Balans hesabatı (2013-01-18)
Bank Respublika: Simplified income statement for 4Q 2012: Mənfəət və zərərə dair hesabat (2013-01-18)
Parabank: Baku Stock Exchange press release: “Parabank” ASC -nin istiqrazlarının yerləşdirilməsi (2013-01-18)
Parabank: Prospectus: «Parabank» ASC istiqrazların emissiya prospekti (2012-12-24)


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Ukraine – Central bank revokes license of small commercial bank in Kiev after its solvency and liquidity decline, deposit guarantee fund begins payouts to depositors


On 15 January 2013 Ukraine’s Deposit Guarantee Fund (Фонд гарантування вкладів фізичних осіб) initiated payouts to former depositors of the Kiev commercial bank Erde Bank (АТ “Ерде Банк”), whose license was revoked by the National Bank of Ukraine on 9 January.  From 15 January through 22 February holders of deposits at Erde Bank may receive their compensation at Khreshchatyk Bank, and after that time they may obtain compensation directly from the Deposit Guarantee Fund.

Erde Bank’s troubles began after Ukrainian millionaire Ruslan Demchak (Руслан Євгенійович Демчак) was arrested by police on 31 August 2012 on suspicion of money laundering and tax evasion.  Demchak, who heads the Ukrainian Business Group (Украинская бизнес группа), is majority owner of Erde Bank: as of 1 August 2012 the bank was owned 91.8785% by Ruslan Demchak, 7.1880% by his younger brother Bogdan Demchak (Богдан Євгенійович Демчак), and 0.9335% by a third man, Mikola Mikolaiovich Sazansky (Микола Миколайович Сазанський).

The arrest of Ruslan Demchak, who had long been rumored to have obtained his wealth through fraud in the privatization of formerly state-owned land, precipitated a run on Erde Bank.  While a decline in deposits reduced the bank’s liquidity, at the same time a decline in loan payments also threatened the bank’s solvency, since a high percentage of the bank’s loans had been made to companies related to Demchak.


On 24 October 2012 the management of Erde Bank announced that on the previous day, as required by law, the bank had stopped accepting new deposits until such time as its solvency and liquidity had recovered.  On 30 October the Deposit Guarantee Fund announced that on the previous day it had appointed an interim administration for the bank for a period of three months.  On the same day, the Fund also issued a public tender – with a document submission deadline of 14 November – for the acquisition of the bank and/or its assets or liabilities, and published detailed information on the bank’s loan portfolio.

Founded in October 2006, Erde Bank as of 1 October 2012 ranked precisely 100th among 175 commercial banks in Ukraine in terms of assets, with total assets of 1,244.6 mln UAH (118 mln EUR; 1 EUR = 10.5076 UAH as of 1 Oct. 2012).  On that date the largest bank in Ukraine, PrivatBank (ПриватБанк), had total assets of 164,562.8 mln UAH (15,661 mln EUR), or 132 times more than Erde Bank, while the smallest bank, Bank Alliance (Банк Альянс), had total assets of 84.8 mln UAH (8 mln EUR), or 14.7 times less than Erde Bank.  Erde Bank’s market share in assets among Ukrainian banks was 0.11%.

The banking license of Erde Bank, issued by the National Bank of Ukraine in 2006, revoked in 2013


According to Erde Bank’s financial statements for 3Q 2012, as of 30 September 2012 its ratios and performance indicators stood as follows:

Ratio no.
Description of ratio or indicator
Value at reporting date
Regulatory requirement
1
Regulatory capital (in thousands of UAH)
231,784
120,000
 2 
Capital adequacy ratio (%) 
16.72
at least 10 %
3
Ratio of regulatory capital to total assets (%) 
17.03
at least 9 %
 4 
Current liquidity ratio (%)
53.82
at least 40 %
5
Maximum credit exposure to a single counterparty (%) 
24.93
no more than 25 %
6
Major credit risk (%)
304.71
no more than 800 %
7
Maximum ratio of loans and guarantees granted to one insider (%)
3.73
no more than 5 %
8
Maximum aggregate rate of loans, guarantees, and sureties granted to insiders (%)
3.92
no more than 30 %
9
Return on assets (%)  
0.12
–
15 
Net income per share (UAH) 
0.09
–



Sources:
An exposé on Ruslan Demchak’s previous business history: Руслан Евгеньевич Демчак – Досье и компромат

Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Estonia – ECB statistics show that average interest rates on new household deposits in Estonia are the lowest in the eurozone


On 14 January the Estonian newssite Postimees reported that the latest statistics published by the European Central Bank reveal that banks in Estonia are offering the lowest interest rates in the entire eurozone for household deposits of maturity up to one year.

The monthly statistics released by the ECB on 8 January, which cover November 2012, include only the 18 “eurozone” countries, i.e., the “third EMU stage” countries, and hence exclude both Montenegro and Kosovo.*  On new household deposits with agreed maturity of up to one year, the highest average annual interest rates in the eurozone were those in Greece (4.59%), Cyprus (4.47%), and Spain (3.00%), while the lowest were those in Estonia (0.37%), Luxembourg (0.39%), and Austria (0.89%), and the average for the entire eurozone was 2.73%.  On new deposits from non-financial corporations with agreed maturity up to one year, the highest average annual rates were in Cyprus (4.21%), Greece (4.20%), and Spain (2.08%), while the lowest were in Luxembourg (0.12%), the Netherlands (0.16%), and Germany (0.20%), and the average for the eurozone was 1.04%.

Experts spoken to by Postimees explained that the particularly low average rates for new household deposits in Estonia would be due to the fact that household time deposits in Estonia typically have maturities of just two to three months, while in other eurozone countries the average maturity is one year.  In addition, Mr. Erki Kilu, CEO of the commercial bank LHV Pank, noted to Postimees that because the average loan-to-deposit ratio in Estonia has declined – from 175% in 2008 to 114% today – banks feel less need to offer high interest rates to attract deposits.

*The ECB deposit statistics lack data for eurozone members Italy (data on deposits from non-financial corporations) and Ireland (data on deposits from both households and non-financial corporations).

Sources:
ECB statistics – Deposits from non-financial corporations: Euro area and national MFI interest rates (MIR)1): 1.1.2.2. With agreed maturity up to 1 year


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Nagorno-Karabakh – Total bank deposits as of 1 January were up 19.7% from one year earlier, total loans up 33.2%


On 10 January the National Statistical Service of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (ԼՂՀ ազգային վիճակագրական ծառայություն) issued a press release containing consolidated statistics on bank loans and deposits in Armenian banks in Nagorno-Karabakh.  (All banks operating in Nagorno-Karabakh are based in Armenia.  The currency officially used in Nagorno-Karabakh is the Armenian dram (AMD): 1 EUR = 533.06 AMD as of 1 Jan. 2013.)

As of 1 January 2013 total loans amounted to 79,425.8 mln AMD (€ 149.0 mln), an increase of 6.1% over the previous month and 33.2% over the year-earlier date.  The ratio of non-performing loans was reported as 0.6%.

On the same date, total deposits amounted to 49,307.4 mln AMD (€ 92.5 mln), up 1.2% from the previous month and 19.7% from the year-earlier date.  Of the total, 17.6% were demand deposits and 74.5% were time deposits.

Sources:


Mark Pleas
Eastern Europe Banking & Deposits Consultant